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Five things are pretty much certain heading into the 2021 fantasy baseball season: Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Igelsias and Edwin Diaz, in whatever order you like them, are considered the top five relievers.
Beyond those, there are a slew of familiar names, such as Kenley Jansen, Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, Craig Kimbrel and Trevor Rosenthal. One name, however, has been popping up more than all of those well-known commodities: Cleveland’s James Karinchak.
In last year’s abbreviated season, Karinchak went 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 53 strikeouts (17.7 per nine innings). Among pitchers with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, Karinchak was tied with the Brewers’ Devin Williams (160.44 average draft position, $5 auction) for the best strikeout rate per nine innings (17.67). He also had the second-best strikeout percentage (48.6), the 12th-best opponent average (.151) and a top-20 swinging-strike rate (17.1 percent).
Karinchak utilizes just two pitches — a mid-90s four-seam fastball and a nasty curveball. He struck out 19 batters with his four-seamer while holding opponents to a .184 average and .569 OPS. He also had a 17 percent swing-and-miss rate with the pitch.
Karinchak was even better with the curveball, a pitch he used 49.8 percent of the time. He struck out 34 and had a 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate while holding opponents to a .140 average and .442 OPS.
So, it’s nothing but elite numbers and good news for the guy who appears set to take over as the Indians’ closer after Hand took his talents to the Nationals, right?
Well …
Let’s start with the fact Terry Francona hasn’t officially named Karinchak the closer. Because of his 2020 dominance and elite numbers, he appears to be the leading candidate, and his 104.74 ADP ($12), according to Fantasy Alarm, shows fantasy owners are buying in. But doesn’t it seem like a bit of gamble to pay a premium price for a largely unproven commodity at a very volatile position?
Karinchak saved 22 games over 82 games in the minors, but has only one save in the majors. Though he has fared well in high-pressure situations over his 32 career big league games, he hasn’t had to handle the pressure of being the closer over a full 162-game season (heck, he hasn’t thrown more than 27 innings in a season). In 12 save situations in 2020, he was 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA, 20 strikeouts, seven walks, a 1.300 WHIP and three blown saves.
We’re also talking about a pitcher who walked 14.7 percent of the batters he faced last year (12th highest rate in the majors) and 13 percent for his career. The Indians are also not expected to be as good as they’ve been in the recent past. Less wins could mean less save chances.
Using an eighth-round pick in a 12-team league on Karinchak means you’re willing to draft an inexperienced closer, who was dominant over 27 appearances in a 60-game season, ahead of reliable position players or several top-30 starting pitchers.
Roto Rage would rather wait for cheaper options, like in another round or two with Hand (116.95, $12) or the Astros’ Ryan Pressly (125.07, $12). You can wait longer and land Yates (166.33, $11), Rosenthal (180.00, $5) or Kimbrel (185.83, $6) at bargain-bin prices. Roto Rage loves the Padres’ Drew Pomeranz, who won’t cost you much with his 211.51 ADP ($3). Or, you could take a shot even later on guys like the Braves’ Will Smith (221.33, $2), the Reds’ Amir Garrett (286.60, $7) or the Rangers’ Jose Leclerc (308.87, $2).
Karinchak is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option at his current price. It’s true that the biggest risk is not taking any risk, but Roto Rage believes the price isn’t worth harming the balance of your roster.
Fantasy baseball rankings
Roto Rage Jarad Wilk ranks relievers and catchers. Next week: starting pitchers
Catchers
- J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
- Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
- Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
- Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Wilson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
- Travis d’Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
- Christian Vazquez, Boston Red Sox
- Austin Nola, San Diego Padres
- Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
- James McCann, New York Mets
- Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
- Sean Murphy, Oakland A’s
- Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jorge Alfaro, Miami Marlins
- Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
- Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays
- Yan Gomes, Washington Nationals
- Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
- Pedro Severino, Baltimore Orioles
- Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee Brewers
- Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Texas Rangers
- Wilson Ramos, Detroit Tigers
- Daulton Varsho, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Tom Murphy, Seattle Mariners
- Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies
- Jacob Stallings, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Max Stassi, Los Angeles Angels
- Kurt Suzuki, Los Angeles Angels
- Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds
- Roberto Perez, Cleveleand Indians
- Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays
- Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
- Luis Torrens, Seattle Mariners
- Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles
- Jason Castro, Houston Astros
- Francisco Mejia, Tampa Bay Rays
- Victor Caratini, San Diego Padres
- Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
Relief pitchers
- Liam Hendriks, Chicgo White Sox
- Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
- Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
- Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels
- Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
- Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
- Brad Hand, Washington Nationals
- Kirby Yates, Toronto Blue Jays
- James Karinchak, Cleveland Indians
- Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs
- Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
- Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
- Trevor Rosenthal, Oakand Athletics
- Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox
- Rafael Montero, Seattle Mariners
- Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins
- Richard Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds
- Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals
- Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers
- Greg Holland, Kansas City Chiefs
- Will Smith, Atlanta Braves
- Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays
- Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
- Joakim Soria, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Alex Colome, Minnesotat Twins
- Mark Melancon, San Diego Padres
- Archie Bradley, Philadelphia Phillies
- Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
- Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
- Anthony Bass, Miami Marlins
- Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
- Yimi Garcia, Miami Marlins
- Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
- Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
- Michael Lorenzen, Cincinnati Reds
- Reyes Moronta, San Francisco Giants
- Sergio Romo, Oakland Athletics
- Lucas Sims, Cincinnati Reds
- Zack Britton, New York Yankees
- Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
- A.J. Puk, Oakland A;s
- Jake Diekman, Oakland A’s
- Seth Lugo, New York Mets
- Stefon Chrichton, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles
- Trevor May, New York Mets
- Emilio Pagan, San Diego Padres
Team Name of the Week
Bichette’s Creek
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