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With Selection Sunday less than two weeks away, Michigan has joined Gonzaga and Baylor as locks to be No. 1 seeds. There’s no value to betting any of those teams to win their conference tournament. The odds at BetMGM for Michigan (+125) to win the Big Ten and Baylor (-175) to take the Big 12 tournament are too low considering the competition in those conferences. And I can’t see any reason to play Gonzaga at -2500 for yet another WCC title.
So on to what awaits in and around the greater Indianapolis area. To help prepare for when the brackets are announced, here are some teams expected to be a third seed or lower that could prevent one of them from actually making the Final Four. Keep your eye on these teams prior to filling out any brackets. This information may help you identify an underdog play early on before the public jumps aboard.
Who could beat Gonzaga?
Tennessee Volunteers
Not that long ago Tennessee was a Top 10 squad. Now the Volunteers are in the position of being a mid-level team but well equipped to pull off a major upset. The Vols’ key ingredients are multiple elite players (Keon Johnson and Yves Pons) who can carry a team for long stretches and a defense to counter a strong offense. Tennessee averages giving up 63.1 ppg. That defense, ranked sixth overall in KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency, could force Gonzaga (92.9 ppg) to play in the unfamiliar 70-point range.
USC Trojans
Tahj Eaddy has the ability to score and Evan Mobley can be an interior presence to disrupt Drew Timme and Corey Kispert. The Trojans also have a top-20 defense according to KenPom and could make it a slower game and dictate pace.
Iowa Hawkeyes
In mid-December lost an entertaining shootout to the Zags 99-88. Iowa sniper Jordan Bohannon was in the midst of a shooting slump and only contributed two points on 1 of 8 from the field. His production has improved since then and just a couple makes from Bohannon behind the arc could help Iowa pull off the upset.
Who could beat Michigan
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles could be the best team in the second tier behind the Big 3. They play fast on offense and slow teams down on defense. Michigan has emerged as a top-10 offensive and defensive team due in large part to the height of Hunter Dickinson, Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers. The Seminoles are the tallest team in the country.
Virginia Cavaliers
No better team out there to win ugly than Virginia. But while on the topic of ugly, that is how the Cavaliers have looked lately. Ironically this late-season swoon could be an issue for the top-seeded teams as UVA’s place in the tournament keeps falling. The presence of 7-foot-1 Jay Huff could be the difference against the Wolverines. If Huff is hot from the outside (41.5 percent behind the arc) he will draw Dickinson and Wagner out on the defense and create space, something most Michigan opponents haven’t had the luxury of this season. With space, Sam Hauser will be able to score more and UVA could win a game in the low 60s. That’s their well telegraphed game plan.
Keep an eye out on Huff in a matchup against Michigan or any other top seeded team for an in-play bet. If he is making his shots from the outside, that is the Cavs team you want.
Tennessee Volunteers
Once again the defense makes this a team alive against anyone for a high seed tournament upset.
Who could beat Baylor?
Houston Cougars
This could be the team that causes the most concern for those with Baylor futures. Baylor is the top 3-point shooting team in the country. The Cougars are a top-5 3-point shooting defensive team.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
This is going way off the grid but the Bonnies have some interesting metrics that bode well for a major upset. They are in KenPom’s Top 40 for Adjusted Efficiency on both offense and defense. They shoot 3-pointers well (37.1 percent) and are good at stopping them on defense (30.2 percent). Keep this in mind for an early-round play on the Bonnies, who are also 11-4-1 ATS.
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